To encompass the system, it needs an understanding of the position of Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITC), pressure cells, and Trade Winds. The rainfall and temperature daily records over 35 years (19802014) for the Beressa watershed were obtained from the National Meteorological Service Agency of Ethiopia from seven stations; hence rainfall on a monthly, seasonal and annual basis were derived from the daily data. As the shift takesplace, equatorial westerlies from the south and southwest invade most parts of Ethiopia bringingmoist winds.However, these winds decrease the length of rainy seasons and magnitudes on the line of theshift. In the tropics, the daily range of temperature is higher and theannual range is small, whereas the reverse is true in the temperate latitudes. For instance, the variability, intensity and duration of temperature and rainfall affect crop production, especially for developing countries, particularly sub-Saharan countries in which the livelihoods of the population are dependent on subsistence and rainfed farming (Hulme et al. The daily observed rainfall and temperature data at eleven stations were obtained from the National Meteorological Agency (NMA) of Ethiopia, while simulated historical and future climate data were obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) datasets under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) of 4.5 and 8.5. Is it warming or cooling? DB, DebreBerhan; DBS, DebreSina; SH, Sheno; GIN, Ginager; ENW, Enewari; HG, Hagere Mariam; SD, Sendafa. Therefore, depending on the historical trend of rainfall variability and prolonged temperature increase, appropriate coping and adaptation strategies need to be encouraged. The south-easterlies bring rainfall from the IndianOcean. 2016). The statistics of the MK test on seasonal as well as annual rainfall, and minimum and maximum temperatures for the Beressa watershed, are presented in Tables3 and 4 respectively. Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres. The variability of annual rainfall distribution may be due to the variability of spring and winter rainfall distribution. By continuing to use our website, you are agreeing to, Journal of Water, Sanitation & Hygiene for Development, Time series trend analysis of temperature and rainfall in lake Tana Sub-basin, Ethiopia, Potential impact of climate change on rainfed agriculture of a semi-arid basin in Jordan, Distribution of the serial correlation coefficient, Evaluation of indices for characterizing the distribution and concentration of precipitation: a case for the region of Southeastern Anatolia Project, Turkey, Evaluation of climate change impacts and adaptation measures for rice cultivation in Northeast Thailand, Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions, Rainfall variability and trends in semi-arid Botswana: implications for climate change adaptation policy, Analysis of climate trends in North Carolina (19491998), Detection of hydrologic trends and variability, Adaptation to climate change in Africa: challenges and opportunities identified from Ethiopia, Estimating the impact of climate change on agriculture in low-income countries: household level evidence from the Nile Basin, Ethiopia, Decadal climatic variability, trends, and future scenarios for the North China Plain, Observed monthly precipitation trends in China 19512002, Climate change 2001: the scientific basis. Therefore, clear information about the annual and seasonal rainfall distribution is highly important for policy planners and local users. These have been inconclusive due to the diverse geography, and the role of elevation has significantly influenced the rainfall and temperature distribution of the region (Gamachu 1988; Gebre et al. The spatial distribution of temperature in Ethiopia is primarily determined by altitude andlatitude. Southern part ofEthiopia receives highest records of temperature in autumn and spring following the relativeshift of the sun; whereas in the northern part of the country, summer season is characterized byhigher temperature.It has to be noted that certain seasons should have special considerations. However, some parts of thecountry enjoy a temperate climate. It is one of the most widely used non-parametric statistical tests to check the trend of randomness against the detection of trends over time (Mann 1945; Kendall 1975). The variation inthe amount of solar radiation received daily is small throughout the year. It is vital to link physical data analysis with endogenous knowledge and practices of farmers to strengthen their adaptive capacity. In this study, to manage the data quality, data series were plotted in order to identify the outliers. Multi-model average (MMA) projections additionally indicate continued trends towards more extreme conditions consistent with a warmer, wetter climate. Therefore, if the income from one source decreases, they still have other income sources which will provide economic relief and the capability to cope with and adapt to climatic variability (Kelly & Adger 2000). Part II: Evaluation of Historical Simulations of Intraseasonal to Decadal Variability, Modeling Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Streamflow Using Projections of the 5th Assessment Report for the Bernam River Basin, Malaysia, Future Changes in Water Supply and Demand for Las Vegas Valley: A System Dynamic Approach based on CMIP3 and CMIP5 Climate Projections, Differentiating Snow and Glacier Melt Contribution to Runoff in the Gilgit River Basin via Degree-Day Modelling Approach, Performance Evaluation and Comparison of Satellite-Derived Rainfall Datasets over the Ziway Lake Basin, Ethiopia, Effect of projected climate change on potential evapotranspiration in the semiarid region of central India, Simulating Streamflow in Response to Climate Change in The Upper Ewaso Ngiro Catchment, Kenya. Here are the average temperatures. Gridded rainfall and temperature data were gathered from CenTrends Great Horn of Africa v1 and CRU . To determine the weighting the following general formula was employed (, Adapting to Climate Change: Natural Resource Management and Vulnerability Reduction, Background paper to the Task Force on Climate Change, Adaptation and Vulnerable Communities, Coping with drought among pastoral and agro-pastoral communities in eastern Ethiopia, Climate change adaptation strategies in Sub-Saharan Africa: foundations for the future, Climate Change-Realities, Impacts Over Ice Cap, Sea Level and Risks, Beyond the Famine: an Examination of the Issues Behind Famine in Ethiopia, International Institute for Relief and Development and Food for the Hungry International, Trend and variability of rainfall in Tigray, northern Ethiopia: analysis of meteorological data and farmers perception, Trending regional precipitation distribution and intensity: use of climatic indices, Trend analysis of rainfall and temperature data for India, Crop switching as a strategy for adapting to climate change, Annual rainfall and potential evapotranspiration in Ethiopia, Climate Change and Adaptation Options in Karamoja, Centennial rainfall variation in semi arid and tropical humid environments in the cardamom hill slopes, southern Western Ghats, India, Micro-level Analysis of Farmers Adaption to Climate Change in Southern Africa, International Food Policy Research Institute, Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. The steepness of these trends generally falls between 0.22 and 0.47 on Sens slope estimator at a significance level of 5%. In the last few decades, incidence of climate change related hazards have manifested in the form of recurrent drought, erosive rain, rainfall variability and flood events (Kenabatho et al. Following theposition of the overhead sun, the ITCZ shifts north and south of the equator. Such studies ignored the localized trends of rainfall and temperature, particularly in most highlands of Ethiopia. Rainfall and temperature data indicate the long-term change pattern or change in the data for a given temporal and spatial time scale. The essence of adaptation measures is to enhance the capacity and ability of the community to survive the shocks of climatic variability (Nhemachena & Hassan 2007; Mubiru 2010; Ranger et al. . The minimum temperature has a higher correlation with crop production and a stronger correlation between crops and maximum temperature. 2001; Kurukulasuriya & Mendelsohn 2008). (2012) found that due to global climate change the eastern part of Africa, including Ethiopia, was drying out. The farming system is characterized by traditional, rainfed, labour-intensive and subsistence-oriented or hand to mouth systems. The daily observed rainfall and temperature data at eleven stations were obtained from the National Meteorological Agency (NMA) of Ethiopia, while simulated historical and future climate data were obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) datasets under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) of 4.5 and 8.5. The majorcontrols determining its distributions are latitude and cloud cover. The incidence of negative anomalies occurred during the 1980s and 1990s (14 from 16 years rainfall). 2015). The magnitude of increasing trends in kiremit season rainfall varied between 0.33 mm/year and a percentage change of 6.13% (DBS station) to 1.62 mm/year and 31.79% (DB). 2010 ). The results from the coefficient of variations shown in Table2 revealed that in comparison with the kiremit rainfall season, during the bega and belg seasons rainfall varies considerably more. Elsewhere, in other parts of Ethiopia, similar conclusions are reached by Merasha (1999) and Seleshi & Zanke (2004) that the bega and belg rainfall seasons are more highly variable than the main rainy season (kiremit season). Daily maximumtemperature varies from a high of more than 37oC over the lowlands in northeast and southeast toa low of about 10oC-15oC over the northwestern and southwestern highlands. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2007 Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Working Group II Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC, Climate Change 2007 the Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC, IPCC, 2013: Climate Change 2013: the Physical Science Basis. 2005). Water Resources Potentials and Development in Ethiopia, CHAPTER FIVE THE CLIMATE OF ETHIOPIA AND THE HORN, 5.2. The magnitude of the decreasing trend was found to be 0.06 mm/year and 7.50% in GIN station, 0.05 mm/year and 8.80% at SD station, 0.11 mm/year and 12.70% at HG station, 0.13 mm/year and 29.00% change at SH station, 0.19 mm/year and 53.00% at DB station, 0.19 mm/year and 35.00% and 0.20 mm/year and 56.40% change at DBS station. (2011), adaptation strategies are an important mechanism for managing climatic change and variability. Winter rainfall regionThis rainfall region receives rain from the northeasterly winds. Winter (December, January and February)In winter, the overhead sun is far south of equator. Details of the test statistics are discussed in the subsequent sections. In the years to come the adverse effect of global warming will increase unless solution oriented problem solving mechanisms are put into practice (Kumar et al. The CHIRPS was developed by the Climate Hazards Group (CHG) at the University of California (Knapp et al. Ethiopias daily temperatures are more extreme than its annual averages. As already explained. Back to Lesson. Geography: Definition, Scope and Themes, 1.2. Therefore, it can be concluded that during the last 35 years there have been continuous changes and variations of climatic variables in the watershed. Therefore, community-based soil and water conservation practices help the communities to diversify their livelihood activities. For more than 70% of the world's population, the primary source of their livelihood has originated from weather sensitive agriculture (Suarez et al. 2011; Jain & Kumar 2012; Suryavanshi et al. 2017a, 2017b). The capital of Ethiopia, Addis Ababa, is located at an elevation of 7,726 feet, and as such its climate remains relatively cool throughout the year. The moving average is possibly acquired by considering the initial subset average. Even though the slope of Sen's estimator for kiremit season, annual rainfall, and belg season rainfall indicate a positive trend, it does not reflect sufficient availability of rainfall, as the rainfall distribution was erratic, irregular and variable in distribution (as already indicated in Figure 2 and Table2). Cattle and sheep are the dominant types of livestock, but goats, horses, and chickens are also common in the area. Both duration and amount ofrainfall decreases as we move from southwest to north and eastwards. Sorry, preview is currently unavailable. 2007; Fu et al. 2015). Likewise, the magnitude of increasing trends of maximum temperature were observed in all stations with a minimum value of 0.023 C/year in GIN station and a maximum value of 0.21 C/year in ENW station. The magnitude of the significantly increasing trend of mean annual rainfall of 0.28 mm/year and 1.07% (DB station) was recorded, whereas a significantly decreasing trend of mean annual rainfall was observed with the values of 8.62 mm/year and 27.88% (HG station). 2010; Simane et al. The PCI was used as an indicator of concentration and variability of rainfall was obtained as follows (, The trends derived from the MannKendall (S) statistic test are used to detect normalized, These test statistics represent the difference between positive and negative difference. In the rainfall distribution during belg and kiremit it was found that there was a moderate concentration of precipitation throughout the seasons, which shows that there is no uniform distribution, whereas during the bega season a significant change in the PCI was shown, thus the concentration of precipitation is increasing and rainfall has become more erratic. Mean annual temperature varies from over 30 0Cin the tropicallowlands to less than 100c at very high altitudes.The Bale Mountains are among highlands where lowest mean annual temperatures are recorded.The highest mean maximum temperature in the country is recorded in the Afar Depression.Moreover, lowlands of north-western, western and south-eastern Ethiopian experiences meanmaximum temperatures of more than 300C.Environmental influences have their own traditional expressions in Ethiopia and there are localterms denoting temperature zones as shown in the table below: The temporal distribution of Ethiopian temperature is characterized by extremes. Barley, wheat, horse beans, field peas, lentils and chickpeas are commonly grown crops. With respect to the statistically significant level, only barley and wheat crops are significantly related to belg and kiremit rainfall. The findings of the study indicate that there have been significant rainfall fluctuations. Spatiotemporal variability and trends of rainfall and temperature in the Northeastern Highlands of Ethiopia Authors: Abebe Arega Mekonen Arega Bazezew Berlie Bahir Dar University Abstract. Five years moving average rainfall (19802014). Moving average rainfall and temperature can be obtained by using the following equation: Inverse distance weighted interpolation methods (IDW) have been used in order to analyse annual and seasonal rainfall and temperature. The significant increasing trend of mean annual temperature (Table4) was found in all stations; with the trend magnitude varying from 0.03 to 0.14 C/year respectively. Previous Topic. A climate impact study in the Upper Blue Nile, North American Climate in CMIP5 Experiments. In a study by Mekasha et al. The spatiotemporal rainfall and temperature distribution are presented in Figures4 and 5 respectively. According to Anderson (1942), in order to exclude the influence of serial correlation, before using MK test statistics, serial autocorrelation is tested by Lag-I autocorrelation using different levels of significance (0.01, 0.05 and 0.1%). In the years between 1981 and 1984, the annual total rainfall was far lower than the mean long-term rainfall. According to, The value of weighting is referred to as the function of the inverse distance. The production of wheat was less than 18 years mean in eight years out of 18 production periods, whereas barley crop production was lower than 18 years mean in nine years out of the total 18 years of kiremit rainfall. The minimum and maximum temperature have increased by 0.8 and 1.1 C/year, respectively.. ABSTRACT: Extreme precipitation exerts damaging impacts on both society and ecosystems. The focus of this research is to introduce the application of the polynomial neural network of the group method of data handling (GMDH) for the first time in the regional area of the New South Wales state of Australia. The area is characterized by diverse topographic conditions such as mountainous and dissected terrain with steep slopes. During the belg (small rainy) season the subdivision indicates a slightly increasing rainfall trend and the bega season (dry season) shows a negative trend, as already presented in Figure2. Crop production showed high correlation with belg and kiremit rainfall; only annual rainfall and barley crops showed stronger correlation. A significant increase in annual mean temperature was observed in all stations, with the magnitude varying from 0.03 C/year and 7.60% in DB station to 0.14 C/year and 31.30% at SD station. Rainfall and temperature trends detection is vital for water resources management and decision support systems in agro-hydrology. 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Is highly important for policy planners and local users trend of rainfall and temperature data indicate the long-term pattern.
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